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The year 2020 has been characterised by the fact that no season has presented its weather traits. Moving into summer, we should expect the weather to get warmer, but what we should actually expect?

1 The period 1-5/6, we should expect the Azores antticyclone to raise over the north Atlantic Ocean. This will not affect directly the weather of southeastern Europe.

2a. The raise of the anticyclone will allow colder air masses from Greenland and the Arctic Ocean to move to lower latitudes, causing the formation of a deep atmospheric depression and possibly an organised low pressure system or a family of low pressure systems over Scandinavia. This will affect the weather of central and mostly northern Europe (including the UK) with a different (comparing to the previous period) unsettled pattern of weather with rain and strong winds at times.

2b. These colder air masses may move slightly far to the southwest affecting even Iberia and parts of Italy with some convective weather during afternoons.

3. Finally, the period 5-9/6, all the previously mentioned situation will push some warmer air from Africa to southeastern Mediterranean affecting southern regions of Italy and southern Balkans (mainly Greece) with warmer weather as thermometers may record again max temperatures large than 30s over continental areas.

 

However, it is important that according to the current data, all this situation will not remain for a prolonged period. Unsettled and chilly weather may return in central and southern Europe after 10/6 as the trapped cold air mass in central Europe tends to last for long and move further to the south.

 

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Having experienced an extra mild winter across the entire Europe, this is actually the first time that the atmospheric circulation looks interesting.

 

 

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There are remarkable signs showing that the weather will change within February spreading arctic cold and snow in Europe. The cause is the already predicted breaking of the polar vortex during the current week. We should make clear that when we say “polar vortex” we refer to a solid cold air mass with a structure along the profile of the troposphere reaching the stratosphere, which is located geographically within the arctic circle. One of the reasons that this vortex is developed during the winter is the lack (or the limited) sunlight.

When this air mas breaks being intruded by anticyclonic systems, then the equilibrium in the circulation of the north hemisphere is perturbed and a part of this cold air mass moves southwards.

This time, there are reliable signs that the weather will change significantly in Europe this last month of the winter. In early February, we should expect one severe cold outbreak in northeast America, which should come with severe cold and snow there. However, this will be just the beginning as it will affect through a domino effect the weather of Europe perturbing the equilibrium between cold and warm air masses in north hemisphere (figure 1).

For now, it is a bit of unknown how exactly this arctic mass will move over Europe. The most of scenarios keen on moving the cold to the central/east of Europe. However, there are a few possibilities that this arctic mass will move westwards.

In any case, every meteorologist that respect himself and his scientific identity should highlight the fact that all this syllogism is based in possibilities and it is not a forecast yet.

 

 

 

Figure 1 – Evolution of the circulation pattern over northern hemisphere in February 2020

 

 

Mild weather in north and west Europe is coming to an end. Southeast regions will be the warmer european corner for the next ten days.

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While southeast Europe having a taste of autumn spells this week, the western regions enjoy mild weather. This scenery is going to rapidly change starting on 1/11/2019, as massive low pressure systems are expected to be developed and affect such regions turning weather pattern into a semi-wintry one.

In particular, the northwest countries (UK, Scandinavia -mostly western-, northern parts of continental Europe) should face consecutive cyclonic systems following by bands of severe rainfall and strong winds. In north and central parts of Scandinavia it is highly likely that the first significant snowfall episodes will occur even over lower ground regions. The rest of western and northern region of our continent will be affected by shortwave troughs, which will be turning the weather at times into rainy with some snow over mounts (Pyrenee and the Alps). The temperature in all these regions will remain around or below average.

Finally, in the southeast the weather will change into milder and warm for the season. Overcast is expected at times with some rain over western coasts as a result of the west flow regime. African dust transportation episodes may occur here.

 

FEBRUARY 2019 WEATHER EUROPE

The weather continues during the first five days of February (2019) to present an unsettled character almost for the majority of the European continent. However, the major part of precipitation will be occurring in the western countries.

The weather will still present an interesting pattern in western Europe, where a new extensive low pressure system will affect mainly the UK, France, Italy, parts of Iberia and their neighbouring countries with rain and strong winds at times and places. Snow will occur over hills and mounts with a small possibility for occasional snow at lower grounds. This situation will probably extend over northwestern Africa. Severe snowfalls are expected  in the Alps, but also in regions of eastern Europe, northwestern Balkans and parts of Scandinavia. In the very eastern/northeastern regions, the weather will remain cold and dry with just a few occasional episodes of (light) snow.

In the central-eastern Mediterranean, the weather will remain unsettled and wet due to the passage of one (or more) warm front(s), with rainfalls, which will be heavier and more frequent in western coasts and mounts of such regions. Snow may occur over mounts. African dust transportation is expected south of Greece and Turkey, while in Turkey and further east the weather will be drier.

 

 

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FEBRUARY 2019 WEATHER EUROPE

There is always a particular interest in the weather around Christmas days as people travel around Europe. Here, we try to analyse the three predominant scenarios.

In the following map, we analyse the possible locations of Azores anticyclone, which will actually affect the movement and redistribution of the cold air masses that are now located in NE Europe. We consider three predominant scenarios, from which the 2nd and the 3rd seem to be more likely to occur. Let’s have a more comprehensive look at them:

Scenario #1
This is the less possible scenario. The Azores anticyclone remains at southern latitudes. The weather remains mild for southern and central Europe, colder with some snow in NE Europe and changeable with rain at times in NW Europe.

 

Scenario #2
Fairly possible scenario. The Azores anticyclone significantly raises over west Europe allowing colder air masses to move from NE Europe southwestwards. In this case the weather will get calmer and milder through the days in western Europe with cold and fog conditions during the nights. In contrast, in central-eastern Mediterranean Sea, we should expect the formation of cyclonic system(s), which may affect these regions with rainfalls (for southern) and snowfalls (for northern even at lower grounds). If this scenario is confirmed, further cyclonic systems may affect the same regions around new year’s eve. In this specific scenario, the strength of the Azores anticyclone (when it is raised) will play a crucial role for the formation of these cyclonic systems.

 

Scenario #3
This is a possible scenario as well. The Azores anticyclone raises over central Europe. This will cause the colder air masses from NE Europe to move southeastwards affecting Turkey and Cyprus with snow (northern) and rain (southern). This also means that weather in central Europe and the majority of the Mediterranean Sea will remain dry and mild, colder in the eastern regions. Western Europe may be affected by some Atlantic low pressure systems with rain and windy weather at times and places.

 

We highlight that the present articles is NOT a forecast, but an analysis of the current forecasting data provided by the online available global weather models.

 

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Variable weather conditions are expected the next fortnight over Europe. However, it seems that there are two weather scenarios, which are likely to occur.

The next ~5 days, cold weather with possibility for snowfalls is expected in eastern Europe, while rainy and windy conditions may occur in western-northern parts of our continent. Fair weather is expected for the southwestern countries. For the period between 13/12 and 17/12/2018, there are two scenarios which may take place.

 

Scenario #1

This scenario may take place during the first part of the reference period. According to this scenario, the wide low pressure systems will remain restricted in the Atlantic ocean. Small protrusions of these systems at the south may push the anticyclonic conditions (at the east) to move northwards. In this case the “gate” from Atlantic to Europe will close and the colder air masses over Europe will remain over central and northern parts with snow at times and places mainly in central parts. The cold air mass over central Europe may “touch” the warmer Mediterranean Sea forming small depressions or cyclonic systems which will affect mainly northern and eastern regions of the Mediterranean with snow/rain.

 

Scenario #2

This scenario may take place during the second part of the reference period following the first scenario. However, if the Atlantic low pressure systems remain at the north, then the first scenario cannot occur. According to this scenario, Atlantic lows will penetrate western and central Europe pushing the anticyclonic conditions eastwards. The weather in western/central Europe will turn into rainy and windy patterns. Small scale depressions may affect eastern/south-eastern Europe. The northern places will be affected with snowfalls at times, while at southern regions west stream will dominate with rainy weather at west windward places.

 

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ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΣ 2018 ΕΥΡΩΠΗ ΚΑΙΡΟΣ

After an extensive period of mild weather conditions over almost entire Europe, the weather is expected to change bringing some wintry spells in eastern parts of our continent within the last ten days of October.

In particular, from 20/10/2018 and then an anticyclonic system will be developed over west-northwest Europe, which will lead to mostly dry weather conditions with foggy mornings especially in the UK and France. However, at the end of the month there is a possibility for some rain episodes here.

Simultaneously, consecutive weather systems from north Atlantic ocean will move toward Scandinavia affecting these places with rain, snow over hills/mountains and strong winds at times.

In west Mediterranean, we should expect unsettled conditions with rain/storm episodes, but also some sunny spells.

As we move towards the middle/end of this period, colder air masses will pass through Scandinavia reaching regions of eastern Europe and even Balkans affecting them with a short passage of rain and snow over lower grounds.

Finally, in eastern Mediterranean we should expect the weather to gradually change into an autumn pattern with cloudy weather and rainfalls at times. Snowfalls may occur over mountains. Although the possibilities are low, these regions may be affected by more than one systems with rain, which may be heavy at places.

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The present article describes the general trend of the weather as it is illustrated by the global weather models and it is not a forecast. The weather may significantly differ at places.

 

ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΣ 2018 ΕΥΡΩΠΗ ΚΑΙΡΟΣ