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Another cool summer for the south and warm for the north is on track. A heat wave occurred the last 5 days in southeast, which is gradually coming to an end. Let’s have an overview of the early August weather.

 

In particular, after the first attempt of August to bring some cooler air in the southeast, there will be a second one much more successful within the upcoming week. The temperature is going to drop to May levels, while convective weather will affect most of Balkans, Italy and the mainland of Greece for around 3-5 days. The reason is a new atmospheric depression in the middle troposphere, which will move from central Europe to the east-southeast affecting the southeast corner of Europe with temperature drop and thunderstorms/rain. In contrast, the weather will be improved over west and north Europe especially after 7/8/2020 with 30’s coming up in many places, even in south England and southern of Scandinavia for at least 3-5 days.

 

In case you are going to visit southeast Europe, you may face the following situation:

a. Thunderstorms or showers may be severe at times and places around afternoon

b. South Aegean islands demonstrate the least possibility for thunderstorms or any weather.

c. The temperature drop will be significant with maximum values in continental areas around 30-32°C or less and minimum around 20°C or less.

d. Northerlies will be dominant over the seas exceeding in some cases 70km/h.

e. Unsettled weather may continue till 10/8/2020.

 

 

 

 

This June seems to be weird with dry and warm weather in north and cool-rainy in south Europe. This is gonna change in the next days, but for how long?

 

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According to the latest weather data, the atmospheric depressions in the ten-day period will follow a northern track. This will allow cooler, rainier and windier conditions in the north, while a fair weather system will shield south Europe for a while with dry and sunny weather.

In particular, Europe will be divided into two areas, a northern with unsettled or almost autumnal weather and a southern with dry and sunny weather around the average of the season. The regions from the north of Spain, France, north of Italy, north of Balkans and further to the north will be affected by coll, windy and rainy weather at times. Interestingly, there is even a possibility for some occasional snowfalls over Scandinavian mounts. Regions around north Spain, south France, north Italy, Switzerland and north-northwest Balkans will be mostly affected by afternoon/evening thunderstorms, which may be severe at places.

In south Europe, unsettled weather will make a break with warmer and drier conditions (around average). There is just a possibility for showers over the mounts of the northern areas of this region. Small possibility also occurs for a heat wave in south Iberia, south Italy and Cyprus.

 

This situation will be preserved till 4-6/2020, when unsettled weather will be back in south-southeast, while warm air masses may prefere again a northern track!

 

 

 

The weather seems to remain unsettled for the most of Europe the next ten days of June. Watch how this unsettled weather will be distributed over our continent.

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In particular, for the period 10-20/6/2020:

1. The rise of the Azores anticyclone with a final destination over Anticyclone is expected to cause the formation of a new low pressure system over the northwest of Europe. This weather system will be followed by consecutive rain bands and zones of strong winds at times and places in the UK and France, while the temperature will remain around or below the average. In contrast, Scandinavia will face fairly warm and dry conditions with temperature much above the average.

2. At the same time, colder air masses will slide to the southwest from Russia affecting the Balkans, Switzerland, Italy, and Iberia with convective weather mostly in the afternoon. The temperature in all these regions will be fluctuating around the average.

3. No heat wave is expected this period over Europe. The only exception is some possibility for short periods of occasionally warm weather in Iberia.

4. From the regions mentioned in 2, the Balkans (till northern Greece, the southern of Germany and Switzerland appear to be highly likely to be affected by heavy thunderstorms at times.

 

The current article is just an estimation of the possible average situation over Europe the period 10-20/6/2020 over Europe.

 

The year 2020 has been characterised by the fact that no season has presented its weather traits. Moving into summer, we should expect the weather to get warmer, but what we should actually expect?

1 The period 1-5/6, we should expect the Azores antticyclone to raise over the north Atlantic Ocean. This will not affect directly the weather of southeastern Europe.

2a. The raise of the anticyclone will allow colder air masses from Greenland and the Arctic Ocean to move to lower latitudes, causing the formation of a deep atmospheric depression and possibly an organised low pressure system or a family of low pressure systems over Scandinavia. This will affect the weather of central and mostly northern Europe (including the UK) with a different (comparing to the previous period) unsettled pattern of weather with rain and strong winds at times.

2b. These colder air masses may move slightly far to the southwest affecting even Iberia and parts of Italy with some convective weather during afternoons.

3. Finally, the period 5-9/6, all the previously mentioned situation will push some warmer air from Africa to southeastern Mediterranean affecting southern regions of Italy and southern Balkans (mainly Greece) with warmer weather as thermometers may record again max temperatures large than 30s over continental areas.

 

However, it is important that according to the current data, all this situation will not remain for a prolonged period. Unsettled and chilly weather may return in central and southern Europe after 10/6 as the trapped cold air mass in central Europe tends to last for long and move further to the south.

 

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A system in central Europe causes short change of the weather with snow at places in central Europe and Germany.

 

The cause of this weather change is a cold front crossing central eastern Europe. We collected a few videos from youtube showing this situation this early morning. Videos come from places around 400 meters of elevation. However, snow occurred even over low levels at places.

 

 

 

 

Having experienced an extra mild winter across the entire Europe, this is actually the first time that the atmospheric circulation looks interesting.

 

 

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There are remarkable signs showing that the weather will change within February spreading arctic cold and snow in Europe. The cause is the already predicted breaking of the polar vortex during the current week. We should make clear that when we say “polar vortex” we refer to a solid cold air mass with a structure along the profile of the troposphere reaching the stratosphere, which is located geographically within the arctic circle. One of the reasons that this vortex is developed during the winter is the lack (or the limited) sunlight.

When this air mas breaks being intruded by anticyclonic systems, then the equilibrium in the circulation of the north hemisphere is perturbed and a part of this cold air mass moves southwards.

This time, there are reliable signs that the weather will change significantly in Europe this last month of the winter. In early February, we should expect one severe cold outbreak in northeast America, which should come with severe cold and snow there. However, this will be just the beginning as it will affect through a domino effect the weather of Europe perturbing the equilibrium between cold and warm air masses in north hemisphere (figure 1).

For now, it is a bit of unknown how exactly this arctic mass will move over Europe. The most of scenarios keen on moving the cold to the central/east of Europe. However, there are a few possibilities that this arctic mass will move westwards.

In any case, every meteorologist that respect himself and his scientific identity should highlight the fact that all this syllogism is based in possibilities and it is not a forecast yet.

 

 

 

Figure 1 – Evolution of the circulation pattern over northern hemisphere in February 2020

 

 

Everyone can realise that this winter has already been fairly warm over Europe. There is a map showing the ugly truth.

In the following NCEP map the mean surface temperature anomaly is depicted for the period 17/12/2019-16/1/2020. The reference period is 1981-2010.

It is fairly clear thay the last 30 days were particularly warm in Scandinavia and northeastern Europe (up to +8°C). This fact actually led to quite weak cold outbreaks in Balkans around Christmas. Although the northeastern corner of Europe was the warmest, the rest of out continent was also much warmer than the mean climatic temperature in the middle of this winter with temperature anomalies between +1°C and +6°C. The regions with the lowest anomalies were around the Mediterranean sea.

It is impressive that even places in central Greece, where significant snow occurred (at places more than 30-40cm), the temperature was still above the mean seasonal temperature.

Concluding, the signs are getting more and more ominous and the situation seems to have been sufficiently estimated be the climatic models (e.g. heating is much more intense in higher latitudes). Thus, it seems to be a good point of time to think deeply about the climate change.

 

 

Starting before Christmas, the atmospheric circulation has changed over Europe with the coldest conditions being located over Balkans at the moment. Bu t what about next?

Analyzing the situation, we try to find clues in order to get an idea of the weather that we should expect for the next fortnight.

 

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The first and very important hint is the expected position of the Azores anticyclone, which is the main system that manages and distributes the cold air over Europe. Having a look at figure 1 we can realize that most of western Europe is highly likely to be under anticyclonic conditions for a prolonged period and only the very north countries (e.g. Scandinavia) will be affected by some cyclonic systems. As a mater of fact, the predicted surface atmospheric pressure for the next fortnight is around 1020 to 1030mb, a forecast that is supported by most of GFS prognostic members, but also by most of ECMWF ones (see graphs for Iberia, Central France, South UK και Norway).

The only unclear point is how north the anticyclone will move. This can be seen in the ensembles of the UK and Norway. The position of the anticyclone is crucial if we want to make a prediction of the exact regions that will be affected by one or more consecutive cold outbreaks in eastern Europe. These cold outbreaks will reach fairly south countries as Balkans and even Greece till at least 13/1/2020.

Figure 1 – GFS ensemble forecast till 14/1/2020

 

 

In the meanwhile, NAO and AO indices seem to drop to slightly negative values highlighting the possibility for weakening any systems in north Atlantic ocean and the southern movement of cold air masses (figure 2).

Figure 2 – Prediction of NAO and ΑΟ indices (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

 

Finally, in figure 3 a new stratospheric heating is expected in Siberia and eastern Europe, which means that the cold air masses that were established and developed there will released and move southwards to eastern Europe. This is definitely another clue we should take into account.

Σχήμα 3 – Θερμοκρασία στην στάθμη των 10mb (στρατόσφαιρα) όπως προβλέπεται από το GFS στις 6/1/2020.

 

So, concluding for the first fifteen days of January we should expect a quite mild weather in most of western and central Europe. However, cold weather and snow may visit eastern Europe from Italy and to the east and from eastern Scandinavia to Greece.

Definitely, the most of Europe is facing a quite mild and relatively warm, in average, December till now. However, there are hints that the circulation pattern will totally change before Christmas.

The current situation

Consecutive low pressure systems coming from the Atlantic ocean are affecting and will continue affecting the weather of western and northern Europe for the next ten days (so till 20/12/2019). This will not allow any significant cold outbreaks around Europe preserving a fairly mild weather and restricting any weather activity mainly in western and northern Europe (Iberia, eastern Italy, France, the UK and Scandinavia. In the meanwhile, the coldest corner of Europe will be (as usual) only the central and northern parts of Scandinavia.

The lack of of cold outbreaks in Europe is depicted by the temperatures in the stratosphere over the north hemisphere (Figure 1). In particular, it seems that for the next ten days the north pole will be well isolated from the rest of the north hemisphere and will “put away” cold air.

 

Figure 1. Temperature at the level of 10mb as predicted for 19/12/2019 12z.

 

What’s next and the hints

The first tool that we may use for estimating the future situation is the indices NAO and AO. During the last 24 hours, there is a small but maybe significant change of both these indices. AO index appears to drop to negative values around 20/12/2019. Similarly, NAO index decreases to slightly negative vales. Combining this information, we may conclude that according to NAO index, the Atlantic activity will weaken, and according to AO index, a cold outbreak may occur in Europe. However, this will not take place before 20/12/2019.

So, for the last ten days of this December, there is another clue supporting the change of the weather pattern. There have already been a few GFS ensemble members (almost 50% of them) predicting an establishment of an anticyclone over the Scandinavia. If something like that happens, the weather will get quite Christmasy in eastern and maybe southeastern Europe, while Christmas will be fairly dry in west and northwest Europe.

 

Stay tuned till our next article, which will come up once we get more reliable data about the period around C

 

 

Μετά τις 20/12/2019 διαφαίνονται και κάποια σενάρια εγκαθίδρυσης Σκανδιναβικού αντικυκλώνα, όπως φαίνεται και στα προγνωστικά μέλη του GFS για την περιοχή της νότιας Νορβηγίας (σχήμα 2). Πιο συγκεκριμένα, σχεδόν το 50% των μελών αυτή τη στιγμή “βλέπουν” την ανάπτυξη υψηλών πιέσεων στην περιοχή. Αν αυτό συμβεί, τότε θα επιτραπεί σε ψυχρότερες αέριες μάζες από τη Ρωσία να κατέλθουν νοτιότερα.

Mild weather in north and west Europe is coming to an end. Southeast regions will be the warmer european corner for the next ten days.

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While southeast Europe having a taste of autumn spells this week, the western regions enjoy mild weather. This scenery is going to rapidly change starting on 1/11/2019, as massive low pressure systems are expected to be developed and affect such regions turning weather pattern into a semi-wintry one.

In particular, the northwest countries (UK, Scandinavia -mostly western-, northern parts of continental Europe) should face consecutive cyclonic systems following by bands of severe rainfall and strong winds. In north and central parts of Scandinavia it is highly likely that the first significant snowfall episodes will occur even over lower ground regions. The rest of western and northern region of our continent will be affected by shortwave troughs, which will be turning the weather at times into rainy with some snow over mounts (Pyrenee and the Alps). The temperature in all these regions will remain around or below average.

Finally, in the southeast the weather will change into milder and warm for the season. Overcast is expected at times with some rain over western coasts as a result of the west flow regime. African dust transportation episodes may occur here.