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An extreme heat wave is taking place over western and central Europe being the second episode for this summer. Let’s have a look at the places which will be mostly affected.

On Tuesday (24/7/2019), Meteo France registered 41.2C (106.1°F) in the south-western city, breaking a 2003 record of 40.7°C.

Tomorrow (25/7/2019), the mercury will again climb to 40°C or more in areas of Spain, France, Germany and Netherlands, while most of western Europe will face temperatures larger than 35°C including southeast UK. For details please see the map below. This situation will be fairly uncomfortable due to increased minimum temperatures, which will not drop lower than 22-24°C in the morning. However, in large cities the temperature will not drop lower than 26-29°C!

This heatwave will be gradually retreating from Thursday 26/7/2019 firstly affecting Spain and France, and later (27/7/2019) the rest of central Europe. This heatwave ending will be followed by severe thunderstorms (possibly hailstorms at places) in France, north Spain, Netherlands, south UK, Germany and central/northern Italy.

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This particular circulation pattern was being observed quite often this winter affecting with snow and cold weather the eastern Mediterranean. Here we analyse the scenarios for the last days of March 2019.

Gradually, within the last ten days of March, it seems that a strong anticyclonic system will be established over western Europe with its centre over the UK. If this happens, the colder air masses firstly located over Scandinavia will move southwards over eastern parts of Europe passing through Germany and Poland. In contrast, fair weather with foggy morning at places should be expected in the western parts of Europe (including the UK). Next, even if it is a bit of questionable, the cold air masses will move towards Balkans and eastern Mediterranean. Let’s see the three scenarios:

1. The cold air masses move to the west over Italy. In this scenario, the major activity will be observed in Italy and western Balkans with snow mainly over mounts and rainfalls for lower grounds. The cold air mass will be decayed and, thus, the temperature drop will not be significant.

2. The cold air masses move over Greece turning the weather into fairly wintry with low temperatures and snow in central-northern Greece and central-eastern Balkans over mounts and hills (possibility for snow on low grounds of northern regions).

3. The cold air masses move towards Aegean Sea and Turkey causing a short passage of cold weather and some rain (snow for higher grounds) in eastern Greece and heavy snowfalls in Turkey. Cyprus will be also affected with rain and snow over higher grounds.

 

In any of the cases, southern Iberia and northwestern coastal area of Africa will be affected by convection and storms.

 

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You can monitor the current temperature observations in southern Balkans through our live maps HERE.

 

 

 

After a fairly variable winter with snow, rain but also dry spells around most of Europe, this last period of winter 2018-2019 may be characterised by a quite stable weather pattern. Let’s analyse the possible scenarios.

Taking into account the data from all the global forecast models, which are available, we can distinguish three different scenarios regarding the weather in late February 2019 (22-28/2/2019):

Scenario A: The anticyclone covers most of west and north Europe moving fairly northwards though affecting with dry weather these regions. As a result, it causes a circulation that allows colder air masses from Russia to “slide” backwards to Italy allowing cyclogenesis there. Then, this cyclonic system will move eastwards affecting central/north Greece and rest of southern Balkans with cold and snow possibly heavy at times. This scenario is possible by 25%. However, there is a 5% possibility that this cyclonic system will move further west being dissipated. In this case snowy conditions may affect mounts of Italy and Alps.

Scenario B1: The anticyclone is established slightly southern comparing to scenario A covering also central Mediterranean sea. In this case, the colder air masses over Russia will be guided towards eastern Mediterranean and Aegean sea affecting eastern/south Greece and Turkey with snow and maybe later Cyprus. This scenario reaches 50% possibilities.

Scenario B2: The anticyclone covers most of Europe (hence dry conditions) leading finally the Russian cold air masses further to the east. In this case, heavy snow will affect Turkey and mounts of Cyprus. The possibilities for this scenario do not exceed 20%.

 

It should be highlighted that the intensity of the cold conditions in the Mediterranean sea in any of the scenarios above will depend on the time point that the anticyclone will start to move southwards (towards SE Mediterranean).

We should also highlight the possibilities that wintry conditions may insist in eastern Europe during early March.

 

You can stay informed about the weather following our facebook group and youtube channel.

You can monitor the current temperature observations in southern Balkans through our live maps HERE.

Please send us your snow video to our email (s.keppas@northmeteo.gr) via WETRANSFER and we will publish it on youtube or on the website.