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Another cool summer for the south and warm for the north is on track. A heat wave occurred the last 5 days in southeast, which is gradually coming to an end. Let’s have an overview of the early August weather.

 

In particular, after the first attempt of August to bring some cooler air in the southeast, there will be a second one much more successful within the upcoming week. The temperature is going to drop to May levels, while convective weather will affect most of Balkans, Italy and the mainland of Greece for around 3-5 days. The reason is a new atmospheric depression in the middle troposphere, which will move from central Europe to the east-southeast affecting the southeast corner of Europe with temperature drop and thunderstorms/rain. In contrast, the weather will be improved over west and north Europe especially after 7/8/2020 with 30’s coming up in many places, even in south England and southern of Scandinavia for at least 3-5 days.

 

In case you are going to visit southeast Europe, you may face the following situation:

a. Thunderstorms or showers may be severe at times and places around afternoon

b. South Aegean islands demonstrate the least possibility for thunderstorms or any weather.

c. The temperature drop will be significant with maximum values in continental areas around 30-32°C or less and minimum around 20°C or less.

d. Northerlies will be dominant over the seas exceeding in some cases 70km/h.

e. Unsettled weather may continue till 10/8/2020.

 

 

 

 

The weather seems to remain unsettled for the most of Europe the next ten days of June. Watch how this unsettled weather will be distributed over our continent.

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In particular, for the period 10-20/6/2020:

1. The rise of the Azores anticyclone with a final destination over Anticyclone is expected to cause the formation of a new low pressure system over the northwest of Europe. This weather system will be followed by consecutive rain bands and zones of strong winds at times and places in the UK and France, while the temperature will remain around or below the average. In contrast, Scandinavia will face fairly warm and dry conditions with temperature much above the average.

2. At the same time, colder air masses will slide to the southwest from Russia affecting the Balkans, Switzerland, Italy, and Iberia with convective weather mostly in the afternoon. The temperature in all these regions will be fluctuating around the average.

3. No heat wave is expected this period over Europe. The only exception is some possibility for short periods of occasionally warm weather in Iberia.

4. From the regions mentioned in 2, the Balkans (till northern Greece, the southern of Germany and Switzerland appear to be highly likely to be affected by heavy thunderstorms at times.

 

The current article is just an estimation of the possible average situation over Europe the period 10-20/6/2020 over Europe.

 

An extreme heat wave is taking place over western and central Europe being the second episode for this summer. Let’s have a look at the places which will be mostly affected.

On Tuesday (24/7/2019), Meteo France registered 41.2C (106.1°F) in the south-western city, breaking a 2003 record of 40.7°C.

Tomorrow (25/7/2019), the mercury will again climb to 40°C or more in areas of Spain, France, Germany and Netherlands, while most of western Europe will face temperatures larger than 35°C including southeast UK. For details please see the map below. This situation will be fairly uncomfortable due to increased minimum temperatures, which will not drop lower than 22-24°C in the morning. However, in large cities the temperature will not drop lower than 26-29°C!

This heatwave will be gradually retreating from Thursday 26/7/2019 firstly affecting Spain and France, and later (27/7/2019) the rest of central Europe. This heatwave ending will be followed by severe thunderstorms (possibly hailstorms at places) in France, north Spain, Netherlands, south UK, Germany and central/northern Italy.

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This particular circulation pattern was being observed quite often this winter affecting with snow and cold weather the eastern Mediterranean. Here we analyse the scenarios for the last days of March 2019.

Gradually, within the last ten days of March, it seems that a strong anticyclonic system will be established over western Europe with its centre over the UK. If this happens, the colder air masses firstly located over Scandinavia will move southwards over eastern parts of Europe passing through Germany and Poland. In contrast, fair weather with foggy morning at places should be expected in the western parts of Europe (including the UK). Next, even if it is a bit of questionable, the cold air masses will move towards Balkans and eastern Mediterranean. Let’s see the three scenarios:

1. The cold air masses move to the west over Italy. In this scenario, the major activity will be observed in Italy and western Balkans with snow mainly over mounts and rainfalls for lower grounds. The cold air mass will be decayed and, thus, the temperature drop will not be significant.

2. The cold air masses move over Greece turning the weather into fairly wintry with low temperatures and snow in central-northern Greece and central-eastern Balkans over mounts and hills (possibility for snow on low grounds of northern regions).

3. The cold air masses move towards Aegean Sea and Turkey causing a short passage of cold weather and some rain (snow for higher grounds) in eastern Greece and heavy snowfalls in Turkey. Cyprus will be also affected with rain and snow over higher grounds.

 

In any of the cases, southern Iberia and northwestern coastal area of Africa will be affected by convection and storms.

 

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You can monitor the current temperature observations in southern Balkans through our live maps HERE.

 

 

 

After a fairly variable winter with snow, rain but also dry spells around most of Europe, this last period of winter 2018-2019 may be characterised by a quite stable weather pattern. Let’s analyse the possible scenarios.

Taking into account the data from all the global forecast models, which are available, we can distinguish three different scenarios regarding the weather in late February 2019 (22-28/2/2019):

Scenario A: The anticyclone covers most of west and north Europe moving fairly northwards though affecting with dry weather these regions. As a result, it causes a circulation that allows colder air masses from Russia to “slide” backwards to Italy allowing cyclogenesis there. Then, this cyclonic system will move eastwards affecting central/north Greece and rest of southern Balkans with cold and snow possibly heavy at times. This scenario is possible by 25%. However, there is a 5% possibility that this cyclonic system will move further west being dissipated. In this case snowy conditions may affect mounts of Italy and Alps.

Scenario B1: The anticyclone is established slightly southern comparing to scenario A covering also central Mediterranean sea. In this case, the colder air masses over Russia will be guided towards eastern Mediterranean and Aegean sea affecting eastern/south Greece and Turkey with snow and maybe later Cyprus. This scenario reaches 50% possibilities.

Scenario B2: The anticyclone covers most of Europe (hence dry conditions) leading finally the Russian cold air masses further to the east. In this case, heavy snow will affect Turkey and mounts of Cyprus. The possibilities for this scenario do not exceed 20%.

 

It should be highlighted that the intensity of the cold conditions in the Mediterranean sea in any of the scenarios above will depend on the time point that the anticyclone will start to move southwards (towards SE Mediterranean).

We should also highlight the possibilities that wintry conditions may insist in eastern Europe during early March.

 

You can stay informed about the weather following our facebook group and youtube channel.

You can monitor the current temperature observations in southern Balkans through our live maps HERE.

Please send us your snow video to our email (s.keppas@northmeteo.gr) via WETRANSFER and we will publish it on youtube or on the website.