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This autumn is characterised by a very rainy beginning for the northwest of Europe and a dry one of southern regions. Is it going to change? So so… Let’s have a detailed look!

 

The synoptic conditions: The Azores anticyclone presents a trend to move northwards pushing some cold air southwards to the southeast of Europe. Depending on the movement of this anticyclone, this cold air mass may reach the Adriatic sea causing cyclogenesis. The possible low pressure system will affect southeast Europe with heavy rain and some snow over mount tops.

 

The UK: It will remain unstable with periods of heavy rain and strong winds especially in the central and north regions, but also some dry spells. The temperature will remain around average.

Scandinavia: It will turn into rainy with strong winds over the southern regions. In the north it will be a bit drier with some rain at times and possibilities for snow over hills and mountains. The temperature will drop significantly especially in the central and northern parts.

Iberia: No rain at all. Mild in the northern, with some heat air pushing from the south. Hotter in the south with an episode of heat wave.

The central Europe: A transitional zone of unsettled weather at the beginning with some rainfalls and some snow over eastern mountains. It will turn into drier for the rest of this region except for German and northeast of this region (countries close to Russia) with some rain episodes. Significant snow may occur over the Alps. West Italy is included in this zone.

The southeast corner: If the cyclogenesis we talked about takes place, the weather will significantly change with heavy rain in the west coast of Balkans and the southern places. Snow may be observed over northern mountain tops. The rest of Balkans will be affected by rain too, however this storm will focus on the places noted before. East Italy may be included.

 

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An extreme heat wave is taking place over western and central Europe being the second episode for this summer. Let’s have a look at the places which will be mostly affected.

On Tuesday (24/7/2019), Meteo France registered 41.2C (106.1°F) in the south-western city, breaking a 2003 record of 40.7°C.

Tomorrow (25/7/2019), the mercury will again climb to 40°C or more in areas of Spain, France, Germany and Netherlands, while most of western Europe will face temperatures larger than 35°C including southeast UK. For details please see the map below. This situation will be fairly uncomfortable due to increased minimum temperatures, which will not drop lower than 22-24°C in the morning. However, in large cities the temperature will not drop lower than 26-29°C!

This heatwave will be gradually retreating from Thursday 26/7/2019 firstly affecting Spain and France, and later (27/7/2019) the rest of central Europe. This heatwave ending will be followed by severe thunderstorms (possibly hailstorms at places) in France, north Spain, Netherlands, south UK, Germany and central/northern Italy.

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Πτώση θα παρουσιάσει η θερμοκρασία από το βράδυ της Δευτέρας σταδιακά από τα βορειοδυτικά, ενώ τοπικές βροχές θα απασχολήσουν την ίδια στιγμή αρκετές περιοχές.

Την Δευτέρα τοπικές βροχές και σποραδικες καταιγίδες θα σημειώνονται κυρίως στα ορεινά της Κεντρικής-Ανατολικής Μακεδονίας και της Θράκης, ενώ περισσοτερα θα είναι τα φαινόμενα στην Δυτική Ελλάδα.

Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν δυτικοί 5-6 μποφορ και στα νότια πελάγη έως 7-8 μποφορ τοπικά.

Η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 11 έως 22 βαθμούς στα βόρεια, κεντρικά, και ανατολικά ηπειρωτικά, ενώ στα δυτικά θα κυμανθεί από 11 έως 18. Στα νησιά θα φτάσει τους 19-20 βαθμούς.

Στην Αττική ο καιρός θα είναι βελτιωμένος. Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν δυτικοί βορειοδυτικοί 4-5 μποφορ και η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 13 έως 22 βαθμούς.

Στην Θεσσαλονίκη θα επικρατούν τοπικές νεφώσεις με σποραδικές βροχές τις απογευματινές-βραδυνές ώρες με έμφαση στα ορεινά. Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν δυτικοί ασθενείς και η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 12 έως 21 βαθμούς.

 

Την Τρίτη άστατος θα είναι ο καιρός στην Δυτική Ελλάδα, περιοχές της Δυτικής Μακεδονίας, της Θεσσαλίας, της Στερεάς και της Κρήτης, ενώ βροχές και καταιγίδες θα σημειωθούν στην Ανατολική Μακεδονία και Θράκη, καθώς και στο Ανατολικό Αιγαίο κατά τόπους. Στα υπόλοιπα τμήματα ο καιρός θα είναι γενικά βελτιωμένος.

Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν βορειοδυτικοί στα βόρεια 5-6 και τοπικά 7 μποφορ και στα νότια πελάγη δυτικοί 6-7 και τοπικά 8 μποφορ.

Η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 8 έως 18 βαθμούς στα βόρεια, από 9 έως 19 στα κεντρικά και ανατολικά ηπειρωτικά, ενώ στα δυτικά θα κυμανθεί από 10 έως 17. Στα νησιά θα φτάσει τους 18 βαθμούς.

Στην Αττική θα επικρατούν τοπικές νεφώσεις ενώ τις μεσημβρινές και απόγευματινές ώρες θα σημειωθούν τοπικές βροχές ή καταιγίδες κυρίως στα δυτικά και βόρεια. Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν δυτικοί βορειοδυτικοί 4-5 μποφορ και η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 11 έως 19 βαθμούς.

Στην Θεσσαλονίκη ο καιρός θα είναι βελτιωμένος με τοπικές νεφώσεις. Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν βορειοδυτικοί 5-6 και τοπικά 7 μποφορ και η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 10 έως 18 βαθμούς.

 

Την Τετάρτη ο καιρός θα είναι βελτιωμένος σε όλη την χώρα, ενώ τοπικές βροχές και καταιγίδες θα σημειωθούν το απόγευμα στα ορεινά της Ανατολικής Μακεδονίας και Θράκης.

Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν βορειοδυτικοί στα 5-6 μποφορ με σταδιακή εξασθένηση από τα βόρεια.

Η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 7 έως 19 βαθμούς στα βόρεια, από 7 έως 20 στα κεντρικά και ανατολικά ηπειρωτικά, ενώ στα δυτικά θα κυμανθεί από 10 έως 17. Στα νησιά θα φτάσει τους 18 βαθμούς.

Στην Αττική ο καιρός θα είναι γενικά αίθριος. Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν βόρειοι ασθενείς και η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 10 έως 19 βαθμούς.

Στην Θεσσαλονίκη ο καιρός θα είναι γενικά αίθριος. Οι άνεμοι θα πνέουν βορειοδυτικοί 4-5 μποφορ με εξασθένηση και η θερμοκρασία θα κυμανθεί από 9 έως 19 βαθμούς.

An African dust advection episode is in progress this week. Its maximum activity will be observed during Orthodox Good Friday (26/4/2019).

In particular, on Friday (26/4/2019) most countries of eastern Europe (see map) will be affected by this phenomenon. Italy, west Balkans, Greece and Turkey will be affected the most, while some dust may be observed even in southern Scandinavia.

This dust episode will remain on Saturday in these countries tending to weaken. However, on Sunday (Orthodox Easter) the dust load will be restricted around Greece and Turkey and maybe Ukraine and western Russia presenting a noticeably weaker intensity.

 

dust african map

 

Weather is expected to be very different form western to eastern Europe this weekend. Let’s see these weather contrasts that are going to be settled on 22-24/2/2019.

 

While the weather will remain dry and warm over western Europe with African dust reaching even the southern UK and temperatures exceeding 20°C in Iberia and southern France, an extreme cold wave with heavy snowfalls and temperatures less than -10°C at places will affect eastern Europe and Balkans.

In the next map we summarise all the weather extremes that are going to take place in Europe between 22th and 24th of February 2019.

After a fairly variable winter with snow, rain but also dry spells around most of Europe, this last period of winter 2018-2019 may be characterised by a quite stable weather pattern. Let’s analyse the possible scenarios.

Taking into account the data from all the global forecast models, which are available, we can distinguish three different scenarios regarding the weather in late February 2019 (22-28/2/2019):

Scenario A: The anticyclone covers most of west and north Europe moving fairly northwards though affecting with dry weather these regions. As a result, it causes a circulation that allows colder air masses from Russia to “slide” backwards to Italy allowing cyclogenesis there. Then, this cyclonic system will move eastwards affecting central/north Greece and rest of southern Balkans with cold and snow possibly heavy at times. This scenario is possible by 25%. However, there is a 5% possibility that this cyclonic system will move further west being dissipated. In this case snowy conditions may affect mounts of Italy and Alps.

Scenario B1: The anticyclone is established slightly southern comparing to scenario A covering also central Mediterranean sea. In this case, the colder air masses over Russia will be guided towards eastern Mediterranean and Aegean sea affecting eastern/south Greece and Turkey with snow and maybe later Cyprus. This scenario reaches 50% possibilities.

Scenario B2: The anticyclone covers most of Europe (hence dry conditions) leading finally the Russian cold air masses further to the east. In this case, heavy snow will affect Turkey and mounts of Cyprus. The possibilities for this scenario do not exceed 20%.

 

It should be highlighted that the intensity of the cold conditions in the Mediterranean sea in any of the scenarios above will depend on the time point that the anticyclone will start to move southwards (towards SE Mediterranean).

We should also highlight the possibilities that wintry conditions may insist in eastern Europe during early March.

 

You can stay informed about the weather following our facebook group and youtube channel.

You can monitor the current temperature observations in southern Balkans through our live maps HERE.

Please send us your snow video to our email (s.keppas@northmeteo.gr) via WETRANSFER and we will publish it on youtube or on the website.

 

 

UK SNOW MAP

Snowfalls have already visited (31/1/2019) southern regions of the UK. However, snow is expected to fall mostly in southern and eastern regions during the next hours. Let’s have a comprehensive look.

In early morning, snowfalls are expected mainly in central Ireland, Wales, Midlands and south-southeast regions, which may be heavy at times in south Wales and southern UK. However, during the morning (towards to noon) the stream will turn into east, which means that snowfalls will get lighter and gradually stop in these places, while east coast and northern Scotland will be affected by snow showers (heavy at times). Such situation will be preserved until the end of the day.

WINDS: North-easterlies will be strong (until 50-70km/h) in the southwest regions and northwest Scotland.

TEMPERATURES: Around -6°C to -8°C early in the morning in Scottish Highlands, around -1°C to 2°C in the South. Temperatures will raise to 0-2°C in Scotland and 3-5°C in south-southeast.

 

Please send us your snow video to our email (s.keppas@northmeteo.gr) via WETRANSFER and we will publish it on youtube or on the website.

You can monitor the current temperature observations in the UK through our live maps HERE.

You can stay informed about the weather following our facebook group and youtube channel.

UK SNOW MAP

Europe faces more and more tornado episodes, a conclusion based in various reasons. Their climatology in Europe presents a specific interest.

 

A study published in 2014 used data of tornadoes over Europe during 1950-2013 in order to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of this phenomenon.

The entire study of Groenemeijer and Kuhne (2014)may be read HERE.

One of the conclusions of this study is that the maximum frequency of tornadoes, but also of the severest ones, occurs in central Europe focusing on north-northwest Germany and north France.

In a daily basis, land tornadoes mostly appear between 15:00 and 17:00 local time, while the less frequency is exhibited between 23:00 and 07:00. In contrast, waterspouts mostly occur in the morning (09:00-10:00).

The following map (adopted by the aforementioned study) presents the month with the maximum frequency (in average) of tornadoes in Europe. It is fairly clear that tornadoes mostly occur during summertime in northern Europe and during autumn/wintertime in southern countries.

Four of the most fatal tornadoes are the following:

1. In Montville of France on 19/8/1845 (70 deaths)

2. In Ivanovo of Russia on 9/6/1984 (69 deaths)

3. In Madrid of Spain on 12/5/1886 (47 deaths)

4. In Sava of Italy on 21/9/1897 (40 deaths).

 

 

EUROPE WEATHER

After a long period of high pressure conditions and mostly dry weather over the western Europe, the weather pattern over our continent changes at least for a while.

 

During the period between 20/1 and 25/1/2019, the Azores anticyclone is going to be restricted over its original position (Azores islands). For this reason, at the beginning of this period we should expect an extensive low pressure system over northwest Europe with a short snow episode mostly over Iceland, Scotland and northern England. Cold weather will dominate over central and eastern countries with some mainly light snow in coastal areas of Scandinavia, eastern Europe and northern Balkans. This cold air mass, then, will move south-westwards combined with a deep low pressure system affecting regions of France, Iberia and Italy and Alps with snow in northern regions and rainfalls in southern regions. Heavy snowfalls may occur over Iberian, Moroccan and Algerian mountains. The weather will remain milder in southeastern Europe with southerlies, rainfalls in western and southern coasts and a possibility for African dust transportation.

 

You can stay informed about the weather following our facebook group and youtube channel.

EUROPE WEATHER

There is always a particular interest in the weather around Christmas days as people travel around Europe. Here, we try to analyse the three predominant scenarios.

In the following map, we analyse the possible locations of Azores anticyclone, which will actually affect the movement and redistribution of the cold air masses that are now located in NE Europe. We consider three predominant scenarios, from which the 2nd and the 3rd seem to be more likely to occur. Let’s have a more comprehensive look at them:

Scenario #1
This is the less possible scenario. The Azores anticyclone remains at southern latitudes. The weather remains mild for southern and central Europe, colder with some snow in NE Europe and changeable with rain at times in NW Europe.

 

Scenario #2
Fairly possible scenario. The Azores anticyclone significantly raises over west Europe allowing colder air masses to move from NE Europe southwestwards. In this case the weather will get calmer and milder through the days in western Europe with cold and fog conditions during the nights. In contrast, in central-eastern Mediterranean Sea, we should expect the formation of cyclonic system(s), which may affect these regions with rainfalls (for southern) and snowfalls (for northern even at lower grounds). If this scenario is confirmed, further cyclonic systems may affect the same regions around new year’s eve. In this specific scenario, the strength of the Azores anticyclone (when it is raised) will play a crucial role for the formation of these cyclonic systems.

 

Scenario #3
This is a possible scenario as well. The Azores anticyclone raises over central Europe. This will cause the colder air masses from NE Europe to move southeastwards affecting Turkey and Cyprus with snow (northern) and rain (southern). This also means that weather in central Europe and the majority of the Mediterranean Sea will remain dry and mild, colder in the eastern regions. Western Europe may be affected by some Atlantic low pressure systems with rain and windy weather at times and places.

 

We highlight that the present articles is NOT a forecast, but an analysis of the current forecasting data provided by the online available global weather models.

 

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