This particular circulation pattern was being observed quite often this winter affecting with snow and cold weather the eastern Mediterranean. Here we analyse the scenarios for the last days of March 2019.

Gradually, within the last ten days of March, it seems that a strong anticyclonic system will be established over western Europe with its centre over the UK. If this happens, the colder air masses firstly located over Scandinavia will move southwards over eastern parts of Europe passing through Germany and Poland. In contrast, fair weather with foggy morning at places should be expected in the western parts of Europe (including the UK). Next, even if it is a bit of questionable, the cold air masses will move towards Balkans and eastern Mediterranean. Let’s see the three scenarios:

1. The cold air masses move to the west over Italy. In this scenario, the major activity will be observed in Italy and western Balkans with snow mainly over mounts and rainfalls for lower grounds. The cold air mass will be decayed and, thus, the temperature drop will not be significant.

2. The cold air masses move over Greece turning the weather into fairly wintry with low temperatures and snow in central-northern Greece and central-eastern Balkans over mounts and hills (possibility for snow on low grounds of northern regions).

3. The cold air masses move towards Aegean Sea and Turkey causing a short passage of cold weather and some rain (snow for higher grounds) in eastern Greece and heavy snowfalls in Turkey. Cyprus will be also affected with rain and snow over higher grounds.

 

In any of the cases, southern Iberia and northwestern coastal area of Africa will be affected by convection and storms.

 

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You can monitor the current temperature observations in southern Balkans through our live maps HERE.