After a fairly variable winter with snow, rain but also dry spells around most of Europe, this last period of winter 2018-2019 may be characterised by a quite stable weather pattern. Let’s analyse the possible scenarios.
Taking into account the data from all the global forecast models, which are available, we can distinguish three different scenarios regarding the weather in late February 2019 (22-28/2/2019):
Scenario A: The anticyclone covers most of west and north Europe moving fairly northwards though affecting with dry weather these regions. As a result, it causes a circulation that allows colder air masses from Russia to “slide” backwards to Italy allowing cyclogenesis there. Then, this cyclonic system will move eastwards affecting central/north Greece and rest of southern Balkans with cold and snow possibly heavy at times. This scenario is possible by 25%. However, there is a 5% possibility that this cyclonic system will move further west being dissipated. In this case snowy conditions may affect mounts of Italy and Alps.
Scenario B1: The anticyclone is established slightly southern comparing to scenario A covering also central Mediterranean sea. In this case, the colder air masses over Russia will be guided towards eastern Mediterranean and Aegean sea affecting eastern/south Greece and Turkey with snow and maybe later Cyprus. This scenario reaches 50% possibilities.
Scenario B2: The anticyclone covers most of Europe (hence dry conditions) leading finally the Russian cold air masses further to the east. In this case, heavy snow will affect Turkey and mounts of Cyprus. The possibilities for this scenario do not exceed 20%.
It should be highlighted that the intensity of the cold conditions in the Mediterranean sea in any of the scenarios above will depend on the time point that the anticyclone will start to move southwards (towards SE Mediterranean).
We should also highlight the possibilities that wintry conditions may insist in eastern Europe during early March.
You can monitor the current temperature observations in southern Balkans through our live maps HERE.