The Christmas weather over Europe: The 3 scenarios

There is always a particular interest in the weather around Christmas days as people travel around Europe. Here, we try to analyse the three predominant scenarios.

In the following map, we analyse the possible locations of Azores anticyclone, which will actually affect the movement and redistribution of the cold air masses that are now located in NE Europe. We consider three predominant scenarios, from which the 2nd and the 3rd seem to be more likely to occur. Let’s have a more comprehensive look at them:

Scenario #1
This is the less possible scenario. The Azores anticyclone remains at southern latitudes. The weather remains mild for southern and central Europe, colder with some snow in NE Europe and changeable with rain at times in NW Europe.


Scenario #2
Fairly possible scenario. The Azores anticyclone significantly raises over west Europe allowing colder air masses to move from NE Europe southwestwards. In this case the weather will get calmer and milder through the days in western Europe with cold and fog conditions during the nights. In contrast, in central-eastern Mediterranean Sea, we should expect the formation of cyclonic system(s), which may affect these regions with rainfalls (for southern) and snowfalls (for northern even at lower grounds). If this scenario is confirmed, further cyclonic systems may affect the same regions around new year’s eve. In this specific scenario, the strength of the Azores anticyclone (when it is raised) will play a crucial role for the formation of these cyclonic systems.


Scenario #3
This is a possible scenario as well. The Azores anticyclone raises over central Europe. This will cause the colder air masses from NE Europe to move southeastwards affecting Turkey and Cyprus with snow (northern) and rain (southern). This also means that weather in central Europe and the majority of the Mediterranean Sea will remain dry and mild, colder in the eastern regions. Western Europe may be affected by some Atlantic low pressure systems with rain and windy weather at times and places.


We highlight that the present articles is NOT a forecast, but an analysis of the current forecasting data provided by the online available global weather models.


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